In the absence of intelligent voters, the power of incumbency and contributions of more than six million dollars virtually guarantee Jay Inslee first place in the primary. His closest competition, of course, will be the most highly bribed Republican in the contest, the Port of Seattle’s Bill Bryant.
Second place in the Democrat division will likely go to James Robert Deal, who has some good issues, a respectable campaign website and a video. (Jonathan Dodds has a single-issue video but apparently no website, while Patrick O’Rourke hasn’t graduated from Facebook.)
There’s even less competition in the Republican ranks. Bill Hirt may be more insivible than Mary Martin, and Goodspaceguy is probably destined for last place.
That suggests four candidates who we can automatically dismiss as contenders — Jonathan Dodds, Patrick O’Rourke, Bill Hirt and Goodspaceguy — narrowing the field to seven candidates.
Who will triumph among the non-Demopublican candidates is anyone’s guess. It’s Mary Wal-Martin vs the two-issue Christian Lambert, yours truly vs the yuppie turned politician Steve Rubenstein. Although I like some of their issues, I personally don’t consider Joubert, Martin or Rubenstein credible candidates. If the voters agree, that would lead to a battle between me and James Robert Deal for third place.
But who knows what’s going on behind the scenes? Mary Martin is backed by a political party and will likely be endorsed by Seattle’s premier phony socialist, Kshama Sawant. For all I know, Bernie Sanders might even endorse her. I suspect Rubenstein may have a sinister support group that I may elaborate on farther down the road.
No one bashes the corporate media harder than I do, and they’ll likely return the favor by promoting some deadbeat candidate(s) at my expense. Then again, the voters themselves may not be able to stomach my message. Can YOU handle the truth?
So, the way I see it, the big question mark in this race consists of the four alternative (non-Demopublican) candidates, and I’m the wild card.
Those Magically Shrinking Demopublicans
Four years ago, the top two candidates (a Republican and Democrat) got almost exactly 90% of the vote, with two other Demopublicans snatching 6.5%. This time around, I’m hoping growing disgust with Demopublicans and politics in general will limit Inslee and Bryant to 70%-80%. That would leave as much as 30% of the vote for the remaining candidates to feud over.
If I’m correct in identifying four Demopublicans as non-contenders, that leaves us with five candidates vying for third place: David Blomstrom, James Robert Deal, Christian Joubert, Mary Martin and Steve Rubinstein.
Four years ago, Christian Joubert got about .75% of the vote, and Mary Martin was missing in action. Will they do better this time around? Will Rubenstein connect with voters?
When I ran for a seat on the Seattle School Board last year, I got a lousy 1.12% of the vote, by far my worst showing ever. But if I could do it over, I wouldn’t change a thing; I ran my best campaign ever. The voter turnout was abysmal, and the voters were Seattleites, perhaps the dumbest people in the nation.
Governor has a far higher visibility than your local school board, voter turnout will be higher, and I always get more votes outside Seattle. So I’m predicting that I’ll get at least 2% of the vote. I also predict that I’ll beat Joubert, Martin and Rubenstein. On the positive side, I can name at least seven candidates who guarantee I won’t come in dead last (unless the authorities simply fudge the figures).
If the voters, like me, lump Joubert, Martin and Rubenstein together with Dodds, O’Rourke, Hirt and Goodspaceguy, then I’ll be free to battle Deal for third place.
Of course, after running for office nine times before, it would be wonderful to make it past the primary. There’s always the possibility of a minor miracle that would allow that to happen. Maybe something unexpected will knock Inslee and/or Bryant out of the race.
I wouldn’t count on that happening, but war is unpredictable, and this is a war.